These visualisations from exclusive polling modelling show how the UK parliament could change under different voting systems

New analysis produced exclusively for the Guardian reveals how different voting systems would return significantly different seat totals in the UK parliament, based on recent polling.

While the current first past the post (FPTP) system could leave Labour short of a majority with 250 seats, the modelling shows how proportional systems would be likely to reduce the number of seats given to the leading party – and give the UK a more finely balanced parliament that better represents the votes people cast.

Guardiola’s success at Manchester City was underpinned by financial cheating. Now he can only double down on his adherence to the owners

“Do you know the question that you are asking me? Today, do you honestly think it is my job to make this kind of question happen …” Cut to the long, painful pause. Chuck in a deep, shaming stare, eyes that have suddenly become death rays of betrayal and disgust and Pep Guardiola himself transformed from a man cheerfully toasting his own FA Cup final victory to a grizzled chief detective addressing a room full of convicted perverts.

Guardiola had the wind entirely at his back at this point, sitting in the Wembley press room an hour after Manchester City’s 6-0 defeat of Watford in May 2019. Success drowns out every other noise in football. To be good is also to be good, noble, virtuous. History is written by the domestic treble winners. Right up until the moment it isn’t.

Sometimes you want prestige drama that roils with nuance and complexity. And sometimes you want Armitage shouting in a cagoule

Dr Ethan Winter is a maverick, a wildcard, a lone wolf who won’t play by the rules. “Winter!” gasps DI Lauren Bell as the muscular outsider bursts into a police interrogation room and proceeds to subject a tremulous pensioner to the full force of his waxed cagoule. “You can’t do this!” But he can do this. And he will do this. Why? Because he’s Dr Ethan Winter, dammit, one of the greatest forensic pathologists of his generation; a bearded genius whose approach to obstacles is as uncompromising as his approach to tremulous pensioners.

And yet. Dr Ethan Winter is troubled. We know this because Winter – the new six-part ITV police procedural that shares his starkly unseasonable surname – keeps cutting to scenes in which our protagonist paces silently around his fashionably underlit Bristol flat while scowling into the middle distance. Has he misplaced the keys to his vintage sports car? No, they’re over there, next to the gruesome autopsy photos he keeps on the kitchen table in the hope they’ll prompt visitors to ask what made him want to be a forensic doctor (“I became a forensic doctor … to mend sores”). Could it be, then, that the source of his malaise is … complicated? That it could in fact have something to do with the murder, a decade ago, of his fiancee – a case which, though ostensibly closed, continues to raise enough questions to provide the series with its narrative backbone? While leaving sufficient time in each episode for the agitated hunk to solve a new, self-contained crime? It’s certainly possible!

Dad’s the word for Andy Burnham, so maybe all party leaders should be seen afresh through a Freudian lens

Is this the sketch my father would have wanted? Not something I have previously given much thought to. He died 15 years before I even started this job. But my guess is that it is. He was the loveliest of men who only ever wanted for me what I wanted for me. He was stupidly proud of even my most forgettable successes. I still see him in my dreams, cheering me on. He’d almost certainly be embarrassed, but secretly pleased, to find himself in the first paragraph.

But that’s enough about my father issues. Time now to talk about Andy Burnham’s. In his emotional and gamechanging leader’s speech on Tuesday – I can’t tell you how refreshing it is to have a politician other than Nigel Farage say exactly what he thinks and believes – Andy told us he wanted to build the country his father would have wanted. It was almost a debt of honour. Burnham was very precise. This was not his vision. This wasn’t the country he wanted to build. It was the one his dad had wanted. Andy was merely a conduit, channelling Roy, who died earlier this month.

The price cap is to soar for about 20 million households in Great Britain from January, but there are ways to save

• Energy bills in Great Britain forecast to jump by £276 a year from January

Household energy prices are set to soar in January, with a typical bill forecast to jump by £276 to the equivalent of nearly £2,000 year.

It is a worrying outlook but there are practical steps you can take to mitigate the predicted price shock.

This shaggy beast is now plastered across everything from mugs to hot water bottles. Or you can sit on her, wrap yourself in her, wipe your feet on her …

Picture this: you get home from work, wipe your feet on your doormat, which has a picture of a highland cow on it, sniff the flowers growing from your highland cow-shaped plant pot, then step inside, hang your coat on one of your highland-cow-themed hooks and put some water on to boil in your highland cow kettle. When the tea is ready, you drink it from one of your highland cow mugs, plucked from a highland cow mug tree, discarding the teabag in a highland cow-emblazoned pedal bin. Oops, you’ve spilled a drop, but not to worry – there’s a fresh roll of kitchen roll waiting for you in between the resin cow-butt and cow-head of its highland cow-shaped holder.

You then carry the tea to your living room, and place it (atop a highland cow coaster, of course) on your coffee table, which has been carved into the shape of a highland cow, before taking a seat in an accent chair made to resemble a highland cow’s head. If you get cold, you can always wrap yourself in a hooded throw, designed to make the wearer look like a highland cow, or reach for your dressing gown-wearing highland cow hot-water bottle.

Senior Downing Street officials reach out to thinktanks and pollsters as they look to test backing for reversing Brexit

Senior Downing Street officials have been reaching out to thinktanks and pollsters as they look to test public support for the UK rejoining the EU.

Aides to Andy Burnham have been talking to EU experts in a range of organisations about how the public would view a promise to rejoin, as momentum builds behind including such a pledge in the next Labour manifesto.

On morning service from Dubai to Tel Aviv, 150 passengers witnessed a horrific cockpit assault and a daring rescue

• Pilot who stabbed co-pilot on Israel-bound plane may have tried to crash it, says Netanyahu

As flight FZ 1073 soared west over the waters of the Gulf towards Israel, its passengers may have bemoaned a 20-minute delay at takeoff. For a low-cost airline route, flydubai’s daily service to Tel Aviv is usually convenient and reliable. The nonstop flight takes about three and a half hours and departs early enough from Dubai that it usually lands at Ben Gurion airport at about 9am local time.

That was not the case for Wednesday’s catastrophic flight. The passenger jet never made it to its scheduled destination. Instead, it dropped thousands of feet in seconds before limping down to make an emergency landing in Saudi Arabia – perhaps miraculously, since photos suggested a large part of the tail of the aircraft was missing.

PM also defends decision to release suspects on bail and expresses ‘complete confidence’ in security services

There are “strong indications” that Iran played a role in events in which five men were arrested near RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire as part of a terror investigation, Andy Burnham has said.

Speaking to the media at the end of the Labour party conference in Liverpool, Burnham said he could not give any more details amid a police investigation, but that Iran was believed to be involved.

Unionists spurn NI secretary’s attempt to resolve impasse after nationalists block controversial Garvaghy Road march

Talks to end the Drumcree parade dispute are on a knife-edge after Jamie Bryson, the legal adviser of the Orange Order, said it would “not surrender” to a deal proposed by the Northern Ireland secretary, Chris Bryant.

With echoes of the former Democratic Unionist leader Ian Paisley’s “no surrender” mantra of the 1980s, Bryson told supporters in Portadown that Bryant could keep his deal.